The nature of Probability

There is no absolute data. Our eyes can only see so far, our memories can only include our own experiences, our minds can only predict so well. Our instruments are only somewhat superior- Heisenberg's uncertainty principle tears at our best microscopes, and even our best supercolliders can only break down matter so far. Furthermore, we face the threat that not all effects have causes. Probability is the methodology of building upon information. We build up large sets of facts, and we look for congruency. Once we find congruent elements, we turn and look for holes- and start filling them. We've seen many people throw a baseball- if we notice someone starting to throw a baseball, then turn away, we can assume that the baseball will sail off like all the others, even though we aren't looking. However, not every time that a baseball has been thrown, has it sailed off. Sometimes it has gone backwards, or just fallen to the ground. Thus do we create probabilities. We need not declare something so prone to error as "the baseball sailed into the sky." We can simply state "It likely sailed off. Other likely candidates include a foul or a ball." In every situation there is a chance of this scenario- "Something never seen before happened." A universe is but a program, a simple set of rules and data set in motion. As such the rules can be anything, and could always include a line stating something like "if ball is thrown let it soar if it is not the third day of June 2021, else explode sun." our ability to correlate events is limited. The probability that a given event will not, in its final shape, correlate with any other known event, is chaos.

Due to the nature of our universe, and ourselves, we are behooven to act without absolute data. To change the world without knowing what we are changing it from or to. We measure events based on value and act in ways that ascribe high probabilities to good things and low probability to evil things. The chances of a meteor hitting the Earth and killing us all is pretty low, but this event would be very bad, and as such deserves far more of our power than a random terrorist cell that could, if it got very lucky, destroy a singular building. In the same way, some things can be highly unlikely to succeed, but very good if they do. A research project designed to overturn the conventional laws of physics and come up with a perpetual motion machine may well be worth funding. (yes, I know, such a project is probably a fraud, but imagine it was headed by Stephen Hawking or some such trustworthy individual. On an unrelated note, the act of giving geniuses money to do stuff that doesn't make sense is often a good idea. Even if you yourself are a genius, another genius may well have thought of something you haven't and come up with an idea that, ingenious as it is, doesn't make sense to anyone but themselves.) Since we can never truly be sure of what we are doing, it is a good idea to allow for backup plans, and alternate roads to success. IE, to allow for different worldviews to exist. Anyone who is actively hurting our plans is in our way and must be destroyed, but people who are even slightly profitable to our overall schemes are valuable fail safes. As such those who argue against us are not in our way (unless they are calling for the destruction of ourselves or our ideals.) since others can either ignore them (and thus support us.) or agree with them (and thus turn into fail safes.) Good ideas, once implemented have geometric value. If an idea is good, then evolution will join us, and spread that idea's champions far and wide. If an idea, once implemented, fails to succeed, one should not assume that its failure was due to outsiders. In particular, a inferior group will never defeat a superior group without the support of the superior group. It is when a superior group degrades itself to the level of its inferiors, that the barbarians are able to storm the gates, and provide the final rites for their once-great enemies.

America does not have to tolerate corruption. I see countless arguments flying back and forth over whether 9-11 was an inside job, or whether Obama is legally allowed to be president. That's looking at it wrong. There are millions of people who are just as qualified to be high up politicians as the ones we have today. If a politician could be corrupt, if we can come up with the slightest evidence that a politician has something wrong with him, he should be replaced. it costs us nothing to find someone who is just like him in every way, except that the new person has a pristine track record. We act like removing a politician from his office is equivalent to executing a pedestrian. It's not at all the same. When a politician is removed from office, his wealth does not vanish, nor does the food and comfort that wealth provided disappear. Furthermore, far from his time dispersing, he is freed up to partake in other valuable activities, such as running businesses or making movies. As for finding his replacement- we have, today, created a society that knows a ton about a multitude of its people. If you've created a successful business, we know. If you've committed a crime, we know. From there we could easily generate a list of people who pass corruption and effectiveness muster, and are approved by their constituent parties, then hold a quick vote (which should be moved purely online btw.) and put in a new person. We could have actual turnover in politics, instead of the modern system where those in power stay there, free to become steadily more corrupt indefinitely.

Remember, our goal is to act in such way as is likely to make the universe better. No one else has any hold on us, there is no obligation, there is no responsibility. There is only good. We are not obligated to buy our medical services from those who have gone through med school or to work for someone who has a large pool of experience. We see only the past, live only in the present, and can only affect the future. As such, we must judge based on the past, act within the present, and place our goals in the future. Thus the present supplies the eternal pivot point, the location from which we decide what to do. Regardless of the past, it is used only as a well of information, it does not control the present.

Track records provide a good correlation between a person and how well an investment in the person will pan out- but it is not the only information that provides such a correlation. In the past we relied on genetic descent to judge such problems. This worked because genetics has a high correlation with intelligence. Today, we have a more accurate method that pinpoints the particulars of the problem- IQ. With our technology we can find out exactly who is best suited to a given task, and act accordingly. The largest barrier to this approach is experience, but the answer to that is specialization. If one person handles all the appendicitis then they will be handled extremely well. If it is necessary that a new person starts doing that job, he should be introduced as an apprentice for a number of years. Brute knowledge, a issue that was of high importance in the past, is no longer important. This is due to computers, databases and the Internet. A smart doctor who has been working for 2 years will be able to diagnose someone just as well in front of a good database+a search engine, as a equivalent doctor who has memorized every sign and symptom. Once a person learns how to find information, it is as good as his. The beauty of relying on tests and other scientific measurements to find out a person's capacity isn't just that we can skip educating people or that we can scientifically search out the best people for the job. It's that we can put the right people into positions that are hard to judge. If a person breaks his machines on an assembly line, or writes faulty code, it's pretty obvious that he is doing a bad job. But what of a mathematician who goes to work every day, tinkers with Fermat's last Theorem, achieves nothing, then goes home? What of the politician who goes up, passes random bills that may hurt or help the nation, then leaves? What of the engineer who stands vigilant over a nuclear reactor that hasn't ever actually broken? Abstract testing can discover in ways that credentials and on the job assessments can't, how well a person is actually doing a job.

The nature of Value.

Morality is the adherence of the universe to the ideal state. As such, to judge a course of action, the considerations one must take can be categorized into 3 points.

- What is the ideal state?
- What is the probability and degree that the course of action will move the universe towards that state?
- What is the probability and degree that the course of action will move the universe away from that state?

Value is the judge of ideal. A universe is in an ideal state at such a time as the values within it are fully expressed. By holding values, life differs from non-life, and is alive to a degree correlating to the strength of its morality. One cannot be a amoral life form- such is a contradiction in terms. Life is morality. It doesn't take a wolf to devour another existence and convert it into oneself.
All it takes is a mass of helium, a hydrogen dinner and enough heat to keep things moving. There are plenty natural phenomena that have chiseled out their existence with little help from our universe's founding, and plenty of forms that are dying away to superior competition. Evolution's dominion is not just over the living- from osmosis to radioactivity, their are many ways in which some substances stave off entropy, while others perish.

The wolf however, cares for its children, pack and stomach in a way that simple masses of helium cannot. It sees various futures and judges them against set principles. Even if evolution decides someday that it prefers blobs of radioactive elements at high temperatures, we, the living, will always recognize that it was the wolf who gave meaning to the world around it, and it is the space/time regions it occupies that matter. As such, the very act of living is the act of assigning value. Any attempt not to assign value is either an attempt to cease living or to veil one's purpose, oftentimes even to oneself. (the best liars have always been those who can convince themselves of their own lies. Do not grant trust just because someone is ardent in his beliefs.) Although every living being assigns some sort of value with some level of strength, it has been humanity's providence and glory, to categorize and label these values. Refusing to label them does not make them any less real- it just makes those who abstain less human.

It is the inevitable result of being low on the evolutionary chain, that the human mind is unable to conceptualize the perfect value, and is as such, unable to envision the perfect ideal. However, the principles that we fight for, can be generally split into six categories. All conflict is born from differences in information (IE different beliefs) or from differences in the weight given to these categories (IE different ideals).

Glory is the idea that things should be in their highest state. A chair should be sturdy and comfortable. A picture should be beautiful and have longevity. A person should be earnest and kind. A nation should be vast and successful. The Romans achieved glory, as did the knights who followed in their wake.

Joy is the idea that things should be in their natural state. A wolf should hunt and live with its pack. A sword should be clean and sharp. A movie should be grok-able and interesting. A nation should be caring and stable. Joy is what the founders of America sought from their new land.

Understanding is the idea that things should be complete. A theory should cover all situations. A game should have depth and simplicity. A mind should see far and wide. A nation should be useful and evolutionary. The Greeks achieved the highest understanding.

Knowledge is the idea that things should be located properly. A element should be labeled and numerated. A dog should be loyal and benevolent. A book should be fulfilling and unique. A nation should be purposeful and driven. Knowledge was the objective of the Hebrews.

Power is the idea that things should matter. A fireworks display should be colorful and viewed by many. A market should be central and accessible. A bird should be healthy and grand. A nation should be rich and effective. The industrial revolution was the triumph of power.

Security is the idea that things should exist. A sculpture should be seen. Life should expand. Resources should be used. A nation should be strong and sensible. The world today is seeking security.

Actions that do not support values are either inefficient or evil. Inefficiency is the corruption of an activity by faulty analysis of the probability or degree of the results of said activity. Evil is the corruption of an activity by faulty analysis of the probability or degree of the harm of an activity, or the corruption of an activity caused by imperfect values. All living activity is good, evil and inefficient at their respective ratios. Inefficiency is no less dangerous than evil itself, as it also is competing with good. In so far as one's enemies are inefficient, one can consider that good, as corrupt values or idiotic schemes will only hurt the world with their success. However, as a harbinger of good, inefficient actions must be viewed with equal disdain to actions that are downright evil. In order for a good world to exist, it requires that more actions happen that are good than evil.

Anything that leads the world to an inferior state is evil. What must be realized is that this includes competing with good over limited resources. It is not enough to desire a good world. We must allow good to occur. When people spend money on charities that focus on hopeless activities such as feeding Africa, they are doing evil. Money is not a mercurial stone that can be transmuted into one's dreams. It is authority. It is trust. It is a right to demand from others that they do as you wish. Every time you spend money you are calling upon that trust, that the money you hold is evidence that fulfilling your demands will make the world a better place. Spending on yourself is a generally morally safe activity- Who else but you would know best about your own needs? How can a nation be glorious if its people hunger? How can a nation be joyous if its people are cold? We try to entrust everyone with at least some wealth, because it extends our vision. We cannot see if you need a new computer- only you know the answer to that question. However, it is an abuse and betrayal to take money and use it for a task that you lack proper information to take on.
Understand that just because you have money, the rest of humanity is not obligated to obey you. It is our goal to do good, and money is just a tool for that quest. When money is corrupted by activities such as fraud, it fails in its purpose. It is to be expected that when doing what those who have money tell you to ceases to make the world better, people will stop accepting such money. Obtaining money does not make you akin to those who have repetitively improved the world, and by doing so, have proven that sanction and support of their actions is a good idea, nor does using it guarantee that you will achieve the kind of results that they get when they spend their money.

As such, for money to be an ideal tool, it must be in its proper place- it must move there naturally and systematically. That is why we built the economy, as a tool to judge who we should trust. Interfering with the economy, is the act of not using said tool. Trying to make America work by taxing wealth and giving it to such projects as look good, is like trying to judge the concentration of a solution without use of titration. Sure, a substance may seem like it is a particular solution, and you may obtain some accuracy just by looking at said substance, but you will be far less accurate than if you actually used your tools. Sometimes, you are forced to abandon titration due to difficulties involving time or available tools, however, such situations should never be used to advocate abandoning titration altogether.